UFC Fight Night Hall v Silva Fight Predictions
I'm gonna keep the intro messages short and sweet since i'm pretty tired. I hope everyone is doing well, the worlds still in a pile of shit but we're almost out of 2020!
This card is a fairly decent card, but I wasn't feeling it that much. Some great fights, but some mildly okay fights too. If it looks like i'm not super motivated with this card, it's because i've been ridiculously busy with other stuff so I never really had much time to look over this card and do some proper analysis. Unfortunately next week will be similar (sleep study scheduled next week). So I sincerely apologise if the quality is lacking this time around. I really am sorry.
(c) - Champ
(D) - Debut
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
Miles Johns (10-1-0, NS) v Kevin Natividad (D) (9-1-0, 5 FWS) - Johns has had some interesting fights so far in the UFC. None of them are widely memorable, and it has been a bit of a struggle to find any reason to talk big about him. His main style seems to be wrestling, because when watching him strike against Cole Smith, he looked absolutely rough, panicky, and desperate for a finish and that’s not a great look for any fighter really, it looks like pure inexperience on the feet. Natividad was meant to make his Octagon debut earlier this year but pulled out due to testing positive for COVID, now, whether that might impact his performance or not is still up in the air, but i’m frankly excited to see him debut. He seems like a fairly strong striker with great pressure and decent athleticism. His stint in the LFA has been pretty successful and I feel like he’s going to do pretty good. Now, this is the tricky part, Johns has great wrestling, he is very strong and has great control on the ground, that’s the only thing I can really say that's somewhat positive about him. If Johns is going to win, it’s going to be by decision, he’s going to have to maintain control and get the fight to the ground or against the cage otherwise Natividad is just going to hit him and hit him hard. I don’t really know what else I can say, not a highlight bout but it could be pretty entertaining. I have Johns on this one, he has already tasted the spotlight of the UFC and he’s smart enough to stick to wrestling, I hope.
Johns via UD
Courtney Casey (9-8-0, NS) v Priscila Cachoeira (9-3-0, NS) - I don’t know what to say about this one in complete honesty. Casey has had quite a few fights, lost basically half of them, but those losses have been against top talent. Robertson, Waterson and Calvillo to name the recent ones in no particular order. Casey is a fairly active volume striker who always throws out a strike, and she’s always active. She effectively outstruck Robertson 3:1 during their bout, despite losing. It’s very clear that she’s always looking for ways to damage her opponents, even though her punches don’t exactly have much power behind them, she just peppers her opponents with constant combos and non stop strikes. Her cardio holds up as well, looking as good in the third as she does in the first. Cachoeira however is nothing but powerful strikes, everything she lands, lands with messy power. She’s not a clean striker, she’s a brawler, and not a very good one. I don’t see Cachoeira having much advantage in this fight unless Casey leaves her chin out there as an easy target. Cachoeira got incredibly lucky with her knockout against Dobson, even though it was against Dobson, it somewhat saved her career a tiny bit. Unfortunately I don’t see her getting past Casey at all. I got Casey on ths one, she’s got the movement to avoid the power shots, and if necessary, can wrestle and take the fight to the ground where Cachoeira isn’t necessarily good.
Casey via UD
Dustin Jacoby (12-5-0, 2 FWS) v Justin Ledet (9-3-0, 3 FLS) - I tell ya what, i’m pretty excited to see Jacoby make a return. Jacoby put on an exceptional performance this year on Dana Whites Contender Series, he absolutely destroyed his opponent over the span of three rounds. There was a period in Jacoby’s career where he did alright outside of the UFC, but his return this year he looked absolutely phenomenal and no one should be skipping this fight. Jacoby is a very crisp striker, and with his extensive kickboxing background he’s going to be a problem for many opponents, he’s fast and methodical, patient and just so damn tactical, everything about him is lasagna, delicious. Ledet on the other hand isn’t looking so swell, he’s on a tough losing streak and with his last win being in 2017 I just don’t really see much hope for him, a lot of these prospects in Light Heavyweight are absolute killers and that’s who Ledet is losing to. I'm sold on Jacoby ever since his DWCS fight, so i’m fairly confident that Jacoby has this one.
Jacoby via KO R2
Jason Witt (17-6-0, NS) v Cole Williams (11-2-0, NS) - A redemption fight is always refreshing to see. I will treat this as a double debut fight though since both fighters really didn’t show us much in their debut. Witt had a rough debut against Takashi Sato, where Sato ended the fight in less than a minute of the first round, so we never really got to see a whole lot from Witt in the UFC, but he seems like a relatively well rounded fighter. I’m not too sure what else I can really say since I have no definitive notes, and I didn’t write about him last time because he came in as a replacement after i posted my predictions so unfortunately i’m going in a bit blind with Witt. Williams got absolutely mauled in his fight against Claudio Silva, and despite that being a rough debut opponent, he’s coming back for more action. His future in MMA isn’t looking super bright though, he’s almost 37 years of age, and he hasn’t been incredibly active as a fighter so it makes me wonder if he still wants to be a fighter or if he just wants this fight for the paycheck. Williams has a fairly high finish rate which is always a good thing to see, but when his last win was two years ago, it still brings up a few worrying questions about whether or not he’s fully in it. I’m not sure who's going to win this one but judging off a few things (age, activity, and experience) I have to lean on Witt for this one.
Witt via UD
Sean Strickland (20-3-0, NS) v Jack Marshman (23-9-0, NS) - Welcome back Strickland! This is a surprise to me because he is coming back from a fairly terrible motorcycle accident and that alone would probably make anyone else decide to stop fighting. Strickland is a fighter in every sense of the word and i’m glad he’s healthy enough to fight again. Strickland hasn’t had that many memorable highlights, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been through some serious chess matches, one that comes to mind is against Nordine Taleb, who at the time was a dangerous kickboxer. It was Strickland's constant forward pressure and very fast jabs that slowly opened up Taleb for more and more shots, Stricklands ability to gain confidence over time during the fight is impressive and I hope he hasn’t lost that confidence because he’s coming up against a very, very tough opponent. Strickland has beautiful boxing, it’s nothing fancy, but his fights are a somewhat rare case of a fighter improving before our eyes, he’s different in round 2 compared to round 1. Marshman is a powerful striker, but his time in the UFC is a little rocky. He’s currently 3-4 and with not many highlights to keep him recognised amongst the MMA fans, the one thing that Marshman has is power, if he lands, he lands hard, and that might be a problem for Strickland because Strickland never really had much head movement. I don’t know what to think of this fight to be honest, Strickland has a much longer reach so he could use his jabs to basically open up Marshman, I feel like Strickland will have this, if he uses his striking intelligently.
Strickland via KO R3
Adrian Yanez (D) (#2 Texas) (11-3-0, 4 FWS) v Victor Rodriguez (D) (#2 Alaska) (4-2-0, 4 FWS) - Yanez had an exceptional performance on DWCS a few months ago in which he displayed great footwork and even greater boxing, everything landed very cleanly and he was patient, as well as violent, you know that kind where a fighter has a split second to think “should i throw a x or a y now” that’s basically Yanez and holy shit I can’t wait to see him fight. Confidence seems to be spilling from Yanez when he fights. Rodriguez is on a very strong 4 FWS and has a 100% finish rate, although when you only have 4 wins, that doesn’t have that much of an impact. Rodriguez has knocked out all of his opponents and that’s pretty impressive, it’s clear he’s got speed and power, but with basically half the experience that Yanez has I can’t see Rodriguez winning. This is a double debut after all so both fighters could absolutely surprise me, but at the moment i’m leaning on Yanez based on his performance on DWCS.
Yanez via KO R2
Alexander Hernandez (11-3-0, NS) v Chris Gruetzmacher (14-3-0, NS) - This is an interesting one. Hernandez has had some horrible slips and falls in his UFC career, starting from his humbling loss against Cerrone, he had a decent performance against Trinaldo but then ultimately fell again when fighting Dober. Hernandez has great striking, but he can be a little brash at times and throw defence out the window. Hernandez also has fairly good wrestling, and he uses that to land some decent damage on the ground or just to control the fight. Hernandez still has quite a long way to go though and this fight against Gruetzmacher is probably the most perfect match up to test him. Hernandez is excellent during a blitz, he throws a lot of feints, waits for his opponent to react, then hops in for a powerful quick combo. His ability to stance switch and give off a lot of looks is also fairly dangerous, but I feel like the key for Hernandez winning this fight is to wrestle, he’s the bigger fighter, has longer limbs so he might be able to get a submission in easier, depending on just how good Gruetzmacher has improved since his last fight. Speaking of which, Gruetzmacher is returning after a two year hiatus and has only had 4 fights in the UFC but none of them were against nobodies, he’s had a very tough welcome to the elite levels of MMA and I feel like he’s handled the pressure fairly well. Gruetzmacher is an excellent striker who throws mad amounts of volume and effortlessly picks apart his opponents, his ability to just eat punches and throw back is beautiful and violent. He makes the fight absolutely dirty and a war and that’s what makes Gruetzmacher so fun, his only weakness is the ground, he’s not too proficient in defending submissions or working out of precarious positions, but boy that fight against Lauzon was beautiful. This is a tough fight, I feel like the 2 year hiatus might have hurt Gruetzmacher a little bit, but we won’t know until the fight starts. You know what? This might be my controversial pick for this card. So by all means bet based on your own thoughts of the fight, but I feel like Gruetzmacher has this one. His action against Lauzon was beautiful. Very interesting fight. Although I will add if you were to bet Hernandez to win, he’s most likely to win by submission in my opinion.
Gruetzmacher via KO R3
Bobby Green (27-10-1, 3 FWS) v Thiago Moises (13-4-0, NS) - I love me some Bobby Green! Green has absolutely won me as a fan when he defeated Vannata for a second time, he looked absolutely amazing on the feet and his striking was disgustingly fast. He has also been very, very active and typically we see some form of decline when fighters have multiple camps with no breaks in between, but with Green its been nothing but success, he’s a work horse and 2020 is his year to shine. Green is also a very proficient wrestler, he’s strong and has great technique and control. He has overall impressed me a whole lot this year and I have little doubt he’s going to lose this fight. Moises has a high Strikes Absorbed per Minute, higher than his Strikes landed per minute which basically means he gets hit more then he hits others, in the most simplest of terms, he’s a target. One example of him risking getting hit to get a win is when he fought Michael Johnson just this year, he won the fight by an ankle lock but overall just got hit too much and I feel like that might be a problem if he is to fight Green. I don’t see where Moises will be a problem other than on the ground but Green is no doubt well aware of that and has worked on his submission defences. This is a fun fight.
Green via UD
Greg Hardy (6-2-0, NS) v Maurice Greene (9-4-0, NS) - This is an interesting fight, because I’m a fairly big fan of Hardy, but Greene is such a genuinely good person so this all tugs at my heartstrings. Hardy is an athletic monster, he’s massive, nothing but mass and powerful. The only issue is that I feel like he doesn’t show off his power as much as he should, I mean, he’s a big guy, right? His performances in the UFC haven’t been too spectacular but i’m well aware that he’s still a developing fighter and with that comes hit and miss performances. It has been a unique experience watching Hardy fight though, because you can clearly see that he’s a rookie but that’s what makes his growth interesting to watch. Either way, he’s facing someone who has experienced rough fights in Greene. Greene has one weapon that Hardy doesn’t, and that’s his grappling, Hardy doesn’t really grapple, and I can see Greene taking advantage of that, but Greene himself doesn’t have a great defensive toolset, not many counters, he’s all offence whilst eating shots. Greene has a mean jab and he will use that to slow down any form of pressure that Hardy might give off, and I feel like Greene knows what to do coming into this fight, it’s just a matter of avoiding the power shots of Hardy, especially that lunging overhand right, that seems to be his signature strike. I don’t know who is going to win this fight, I really like Hardy on this one because he’s always coming in with something different, and he’s never a quitter, so he’s definitely a tough match for Greene. So yeah, I got Hardy on this one.
Hardy via KO R2
Kevin Holland (19-5-0, 3 FWS) v Charlie Ontiveros (D) (11-6-0, 2 FWS) - This is going to be a pure focus on Holland because really, he is the main focus on everyones mind when it comes to this fight. Holland is one of the most perfect fighters in the Middleweight division that is yet to prove himself. He is a prospect that will eventually fight top 5, and he has been insanely active in his career. His knockout against Buckley? Fucking perfect. I love Holland, Wanna know exactly how much I love him? I’ve predicted him to win 7 times in his UFC career, he won 6 out of those 7, and he’s going to add another win. This isn’t a prediction, this is a certainty. I’d laugh if i got this wrong though.
Holland via KO R2
Bryce Mitchell (13-0-0, 13 FWS) v Andre Fili (#15) (21-7-0, NS) - This is a great fight and a very tough matchup for Mitchell. Mitchell is no doubt well known for his incredibly aggressive submission skills and setups, he was consistently changing grips and positions and submission attempts against Rosa, his ground game is exceptional but I feel like a lot of it is confidence, Mitchell is just very confident on the ground. He’s not great on the feet, he’s average at best, and that’s where he will probably be in trouble the most, but once the fights on the ground, Fili has entered Mitchells realm and there’s no escape. This time though, Mitchell is powered by the mystical camo shorts, it’s a rare occasion that Reebok listens to fighters so that’s an interesting thing to see. Fili is an exceptionally fast kickboxer, everything he throws he throws with such speed and power, he’s super fast on the feet and that could easily overwhelm the senses of Mitchell. I can easily see Fili getting some solid, solid shots in on Mitchell and potentially rock him, Fili’s key to success is to stay on his damn feet, if he gets taken down he’s going to lose, I don’t see a way for Fili to win on the ground unless he gets top position and lands ground and pound. This could go either way in my opinion, but in my honest opinion I feel like Fili has this. I know, i sound stupid and crazy, I am, but look at the experience difference and the level of competition between Fili and Mitchell. Fili has faced the likes of Yair, Kattar, Johnson, Jury, Holloway, all in no particular order but those are top tier fighters. I could get this wrong and Mitchell could live up to the hype of being the submission specialist that everyone including himself claims to be, but I just think Fili has something that can surprise us.
Fili via KO R1
Uriah Hall (#9) (15-9-0, 2 FWS) v Anderson Silva (34-10-0, 2 FLS) - This ones gonna break me I think. Hall has made strides in the UFC recently, with one remarkable comeback victory against Bevon Lewis, and then recently a very hard fought win against Antonio Carlos Jr, I was surprised to see the announcement of this fight because I thought someone else would be fighting Silva, maybe someone like Weidman, but either way, Hall is a decent match up for Silva. Hall is a very well rounded kickboxer who has the patience and quick thinking to potentially shut down Silva. I can see Hall countering Silva, that is if Silva decides to be aggressive since he’s never really been the type to initiate action. It’s going to be a chess match in there and I feel like Silva will want to end his UFC career on a high note. Silva has been an idol of mine for a very, very long time, his attitude, his love of competition, his love for each of his opponents, and his attitude in the octagon over the years has been a beautiful sight to see over the years. Silva will always be one of the greatest fighters the UFC has ever had, regardless of his PED’s. But it’s clear to me that he is a shell of his former self, certainly doesn’t help that he’s 45 years old. He still is a very dangerous striker but I feel like Hall has the ability to shut down Silva, especially since Hall has an excellent judge of range and has a 2 inch reach advantage. When you master range like how Hall has, one inch can be the difference, two can be the deciding factor. It sucks to say, as a long time Silva fan, but I got Hall on this one, but i wouldn’t be mad at all if Silva won by a classic knockout. This one is a mix of personal feelings and an actual prediction, i’m not gonna take this super seriously like I normally do. So please, bet based on your own thoughts for this one.
Hall via KO R2
some controversial picks this time around, I don't really expect to get 100% but that's the magic of MMA, expect the unexpected because one movement makes the difference.
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